Reflection by Nele Renders on the annual question: How should we deal with global warming?

The annual questions: more than 130 scientists and thinkers reflect on one central question

Each year, Beste-ID poses a question to scientists, artists, entrepreneurs, and thinkers — the “annual question.” For this edition, all contributors reflected on a question that has only grown more urgent in recent years:

“In response to an IPCC report on the rapid warming of the planet, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in 2021 of a ‘code red for humanity.’ That alarm call has not led to effective global climate policy. In 2024, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency stated that the likelihood of the Netherlands meeting its 2030 climate goals is less than five percent. Flanders will also miss its 2030 climate targets if no additional measures are taken. And earlier this year, the Trump administration announced that the US will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. This raises the question: How should we deal with global warming?” 

A reflection by Nele Renders in her own words: How should we deal with global warming?

SYSTEMS THINKING

Climate and energy policy is like a web: everything is connected to everything.

When mapping out climate policy — the forward-looking view — the importance of systems thinking has increased over the years. A cost-effective pathway requires smart coordination, steering, and cooperation between sectors.

Paths2050 scenarios show that no mitigation technology may be missing in the climate-neutral puzzle for 2050: from solar energy to nuclear energy, from insulation to residual heat networks, from sustainable public transport to vehicle-to-grid.

In addition to technology, human behaviour also strongly influences the outcome, such as the well-known rebound effect that leads to a lower-than-expected reduction.

LEARNING from the past

In the EU-27 member states, existing climate measures are seldom evaluated. [1] Factors such as emission reductions, cost–benefit, and progress indicators often remain underexposed. In the year 2023, only seven EU member states reported ex-post quantified data for at least one policy or measure. [2] This results in insufficient insight into what works and what does not, with limited tools as a consequence to adjust the policy. Even more, well-intended financial support measures can create undesirable free-rider behaviour, which reduces effectiveness.

Daring to ANTICIPATE

To face the increasing challenges, it is important to adjust both the forward-looking view and the climate policy to the lessons learned.

For example, our research into previous emission scenarios for the built environment taught us that the expected impact of climate policy and efficiency improvements is often underestimated in projections. [3] The shadow of the existing policy context often hangs over our estimation of what new measures will mean. From a policy perspective, we must therefore transcend Business-As-Usual thinking and dare to anticipate a climate-neutral future.

Moreover, we are experiencing the consequences of climate change, which requires shaping mitigation and adaptation policy hand in hand.

The recent very wet and very dry periods have increased moisture problems in homes and have also affected the stability of materials and structures. The building sector of tomorrow faces the challenge not only to be climate-neutral, but also to be resistant to the changing climate. [4] Only by combining both pillars, mitigation and adaptation, can we truly make progress.”

About Nele Renders (EnergyVille/VITO)