Reflection by Nele Renders on the annual question: How should we deal with global warming?
On 29 November, the website Beste-ID publishes its annual question, in which more than 130 scientists, artists, entrepreneurs, a monk, and a former general reflect on one central question: How should we deal with global warming? On behalf of EnergyVille/VITO, energy and climate expert Nele Renders contributed an in-depth reflection. She emphasises that effective climate policy is grounded in systems thinking, learning from the past, and daring to anticipate a climate-neutral future. You can find her contribution here.
The annual questions: more than 130 scientists and thinkers reflect on one central question
Each year, Beste-ID poses a question to scientists, artists, entrepreneurs, and thinkers — the “annual question.” For this edition, all contributors reflected on a question that has only grown more urgent in recent years:
“In response to an IPCC report on the rapid warming of the planet, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in 2021 of a ‘code red for humanity.’ That alarm call has not led to effective global climate policy. In 2024, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency stated that the likelihood of the Netherlands meeting its 2030 climate goals is less than five percent. Flanders will also miss its 2030 climate targets if no additional measures are taken. And earlier this year, the Trump administration announced that the US will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. This raises the question: How should we deal with global warming?”
A reflection by Nele Renders in her own words: How should we deal with global warming?
“Climate change can no longer be ignored: at times we face extremely dry summers, at other times severe flooding.
Both mitigation – limiting global warming – and adaptation – responding to changing conditions – are essential to address this appropriately.
Since the 1990s, climate has increasingly appeared on the policy agenda in our regions. Yet climate policy remains a difficult task.
Effective policy must be grounded in three core principles: systems thinking, learning, and daring to anticipate.”
SYSTEMS THINKING
Climate and energy policy is like a web: everything is connected to everything.
When mapping out climate policy — the forward-looking view — the importance of systems thinking has increased over the years. A cost-effective pathway requires smart coordination, steering, and cooperation between sectors.
Paths2050 scenarios show that no mitigation technology may be missing in the climate-neutral puzzle for 2050: from solar energy to nuclear energy, from insulation to residual heat networks, from sustainable public transport to vehicle-to-grid.
In addition to technology, human behaviour also strongly influences the outcome, such as the well-known rebound effect that leads to a lower-than-expected reduction.
LEARNING from the past
In the EU-27 member states, existing climate measures are seldom evaluated. [1] Factors such as emission reductions, cost–benefit, and progress indicators often remain underexposed. In the year 2023, only seven EU member states reported ex-post quantified data for at least one policy or measure. [2] This results in insufficient insight into what works and what does not, with limited tools as a consequence to adjust the policy. Even more, well-intended financial support measures can create undesirable free-rider behaviour, which reduces effectiveness.
Daring to ANTICIPATE
To face the increasing challenges, it is important to adjust both the forward-looking view and the climate policy to the lessons learned.
For example, our research into previous emission scenarios for the built environment taught us that the expected impact of climate policy and efficiency improvements is often underestimated in projections. [3] The shadow of the existing policy context often hangs over our estimation of what new measures will mean. From a policy perspective, we must therefore transcend Business-As-Usual thinking and dare to anticipate a climate-neutral future.
Moreover, we are experiencing the consequences of climate change, which requires shaping mitigation and adaptation policy hand in hand.
The recent very wet and very dry periods have increased moisture problems in homes and have also affected the stability of materials and structures. The building sector of tomorrow faces the challenge not only to be climate-neutral, but also to be resistant to the changing climate. [4] Only by combining both pillars, mitigation and adaptation, can we truly make progress.”
About Nele Renders (EnergyVille/VITO)
Nele Renders has been active within EnergyVille/VITO since 2005 as an energy and climate expert, with extensive experience in European policy studies and energy efficiency.
She supported the European Environmental Agency in monitoring the progress of EU member states toward energy-efficiency targets. In addition, she coordinated the H2020 project streamSAVE.eu, which guides member states and energy agencies in the implementation of the Energy Efficiency Directive, as well as the European Energy Behaviour Forum, which strengthens local authorities in their energy and climate transition.
Furthermore, she is involved in the development of energy and emission scenarios for various governments and industries in Belgium, including through Paths2050, and for international partners, such as in Malawi.
Referenties
[1] https://pattern-heu.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/D1.1_Current_Evaluation_Challenges.pdf
[2] https://energyville.be/blog/learning-from-the-past-informing-future-policies/
[3] https://pattern-heu.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/D4.3_Guidelines.pdf
[4] COPRADAPT I – Climate adaptation and building products: Exploratory research for the Belgian market, Maart 2025
